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Old 03-08-2011, 09:56 AM   #1
Tenyu
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Po

Does anyone here know the significance/implication of this graph?

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Old 03-08-2011, 11:45 AM   #2
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Re: Po

Quote:
Tenyu Hamaki wrote: View Post
Does anyone here know the significance/implication of this graph?

While I am totally all over solar and other "Green" sources of energy, the only way we will be able to supply the energy needed by the world's population and its demands for economic development going forward is by developing nuclear power starting right away.

Solar, wind, geo-thermal, hydro electric, etc will barely scratch the surface in terms of the demand. Failure to supply the needed energy for development will only increase the divide between the world's rich and poor and has drastic implications for world peace etc. We are far more likely to blow each other to smithereens than to have things last until some environmental collapse.

Richard Clarke, former National Security Advisor, described Global warming as the number one security threat against our country. We need to solve the energy issue immediately, really, yesterday. However unfortunate, solar can't even come close.

Electric cars etc are just a joke until we solve the power problem. There isn't enough electricity in the grid to supply the energy needed to convert our cars to electricity. If we can get fuel cell technology going on a production scale, it would solve the car issue but nuclear is still the only form of energy production which produces the amount required to prevent economic collapse. And there is a supply issue with the materials needed to accomplish this as the current technology stands.

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Old 03-08-2011, 11:59 AM   #3
Keith Larman
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Re: Po

There was a very Good TED Lecture by Bill Gates on power, innovation and the future.

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Old 03-08-2011, 01:59 PM   #4
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Re: Po

George,

Have you seen this? Everything should have been multiplied by 50 to show a year's worth but I guess it would have made some of the numbers too large.



Here's a quote from someone else that did the quick math several years ago when the graph was first made:

Here's some more math. One cubic mile is
1,101,117,150,000 gallons. That's over 1.1 trillion gallons.

There are 42 gallons in a standard barrel of oil. So one cubic mile of oil is 26,217,075,000 barrels.

World oil production has stagnated at 85 million barrels per *day* for the last three years (and yet there are so many idiots who think there's no supply problem!!!). At current global production levels then, it takes approximately 308.436 days to pump a cubic mile of oil.

So to replace what we could get from 308 days of global oil production, it would take 52 nuclear power plants 50 years. Or putting it another way, as much energy as 2600 nuclear power plants will produce in one year, or 3078 nuclear power plants in 308 days. To account for fluctuations, let's say 3000 nuclear power plants.

END QUOTE

There are 442 existing nuclear power plants in the world. $10 billion plus 10 years to construct just one new plant.

From Wikipedia:

Pessimistic uranium depletion outlook

Various agencies have tried to estimate how long these resources will last.
European Commission
The European Commission said in 2001 that at the current level of uranium consumption, known uranium resources would last 42 years. When added to military and secondary sources, the resources could be stretched to 72 years. Yet this rate of usage assumes that nuclear power continues to provide only a fraction of the world's energy supply. If electric capacity were increased six-fold, then the 72-year supply would last just 12 years.

Electricity can't run cars, trucks, ships, or planes either obviously, the arteries and veins of the global economy.

I'm very happy nuclear is not an option either because the planet cannot support this insanity anymore.
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:09 PM   #5
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Re: Po

And the check is in the mail, the telephone repairman will be arrive at 9:am and Obama is the One to save us all.

I'll put that on my "Doomsday and Disaster" list and hope that these guys are right.

"Oil, is the Earth Running Out or Making More?"
http://alt-energystocks.com/blog/200...r-making-more/

"Is the Earth Producing MORE Oil?"
http://blogs.motortrend.com/is-the-e...-oil-1826.html

"Mystery still surrounds Earth's oil supply "
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9663967/...ience-science/


dps

Last edited by dps : 03-08-2011 at 02:19 PM.
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:13 PM   #6
Tenyu
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Re: Po

Quote:
Keith Larman wrote: View Post
There was a very Good TED Lecture by Bill Gates on power, innovation and the future.
Gates said in the presentation population's going to 9 billion. He knows that's impossible. Politician-speak is worthless regarding energy.
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:16 PM   #7
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Re: Po

Quote:
David Skaggs wrote: View Post
Yes. well I'll put that on my "Doomsday and Disaster" list and hope that these guys are right.

"Oil, is the Earth Running Out or Making More?"
http://alt-energystocks.com/blog/200...r-making-more/

"Is the Earth Producing MORE Oil?"
http://blogs.motortrend.com/is-the-e...-oil-1826.html

"Mystery still surrounds Earth's oil supply "
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9663967/...ience-science/

dps
David,

Sorry to break it to you, but abiotic oil 'theory' was proven propaganda-garbage long time ago.
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:30 PM   #8
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Re: Po

fusion power plants will probably be available in 10 years or sooner. ITER http://www.iter.org/

although, population growth still needs control. china controlled it with an iron fist, so in a way, communism worked for china. even with such control, china is paying for that today, as well as the rest of the world pay for china. other places like India, there is no such control mechanism of any kind. the rest of the world, will pay for that for years to come.
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:30 PM   #9
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Re: Po

Quote:
Tenyu Hamaki wrote: View Post
David,

Sorry to break it to you, but abiotic oil 'theory' was proven propaganda-garbage long time ago.
Tenyu,

This is not the first or second or last time there has been a prediction of the earth running out of oil.

The real problem with oil production and pricing is with politicians and special interest groups that profit monetarily and/or ideologically from these predictions.


‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/op...ynch.html?_r=1

dps

Last edited by dps : 03-08-2011 at 02:45 PM.
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:49 PM   #10
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Re: Po

Quote:
Phi Truong wrote: View Post
fusion power plants will probably be available in 10 years or sooner. ITER http://www.iter.org/

although, population growth still needs control. china controlled it with an iron fist, so in a way, communism worked for china. even with such control, china is paying for that today, as well as the rest of the world pay for china. other places like India, there is no such control mechanism of any kind. the rest of the world, will pay for that for years to come.
Phi,

Fusion is star trek fantasy.
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:54 PM   #11
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Re: Po

Quote:
David Skaggs wrote: View Post
Tenyu,

This is not the first or second or last time there has been a prediction of the earth running out of oil.

The real problem with oil production and pricing is with politicians and special interest groups that profit monetarily and/or ideologically from these predictions.

‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/op...ynch.html?_r=1

dps
Michael Lynch is well-known paid shill for the oil industry.

No one in the world is saying we're running out of oil, but it is fact that we're running out of cheap oil which there is no replacement for.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5711
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:07 PM   #12
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Re: Po

Oil Crash:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z9T5XPrDvg

William R Catton author of:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bXXQ1vVdsI&NR=1
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:09 PM   #13
Marc Abrams
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Re: Po

Quote:
Phi Truong wrote: View Post
fusion power plants will probably be available in 10 years or sooner. ITER http://www.iter.org/

although, population growth still needs control. china controlled it with an iron fist, so in a way, communism worked for china. even with such control, china is paying for that today, as well as the rest of the world pay for china. other places like India, there is no such control mechanism of any kind. the rest of the world, will pay for that for years to come.
Phil:

I heard that if you can twirl your Bo and achieve attenuated activations from between 30 to 60 cycles, fusion energy is created!

Marc Abrams
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:16 PM   #14
dps
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Re: Po

Quote:
Tenyu Hamaki wrote: View Post
A sociologist who wants revolutionary change.

Isn't that something new..

dps
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:21 PM   #15
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Re: Po

Quote:
David Skaggs wrote: View Post
A sociologist who wants revolutionary change.

Isn't that something new..

dps
He doesn't talk about what he wants, he talks about what ecology demands, call it natural law, or second law of thermodynamics.
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:24 PM   #16
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Re: Po

David,

You mentioned before ad homs are used when facts are absent.
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:33 PM   #17
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Re: Po

Star date, oh, whatever -- from the site Phi linked:

"Steady progress has been made since in fusion devices around the world. The Tore Supra Tokamak that is part of the Cadarache nuclear research centre holds the record for the longest plasma duration time of any tokamak: six minutes and 30 seconds. The Japanese JT-60 achieved the highest value of fusion triple product - density, temperature, confinement time -of any device to date. US fusion installations have reached temperatures of several hundred million degrees Celsius.

Achievements like these have led fusion science to an exciting threshold: the long sought-after plasma energy breakeven point. Breakeven describes the moment when plasmas in a fusion device release at least as much energy as is required to produce them. Plasma energy breakeven has never been achieved: the current record for energy release is held by JET, which succeeded in generating 70% of input power. Scientists have now designed the next-step device - ITER - which will produce more power than it consumes: for 50 MW of input power, 500 MW of output power will be produced."

Hmm.

David Henderson
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:42 PM   #18
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Re: Po

David H,

Fusion, if it were real, would be the worst thing possible for us. What humanity needs is a recognition and a reconnection with mother nature. Please read Ascent of Humanity, the book is also available for purchase on Amazon.

Marc,

That was almost funny.
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:43 PM   #19
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Re: Po

Quote:
David Skaggs wrote: View Post
Tenyu,

This is not the first or second or last time there has been a prediction of the earth running out of oil.

The real problem with oil production and pricing is with politicians and special interest groups that profit monetarily and/or ideologically from these predictions.

‘Peak Oil' Is a Waste of Energy

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/op...ynch.html?_r=1

dps
And which special interest groups stand to gain/lose the most apart from the oil industry? The fact that multiple predictions have come and been amended doesn't mean anything other than it happened. Mankind has many historical examples of presumption of bounty which turned out to be false too.
Peak oil isn't a waste of energy because it's a limited resource as of yet. I found the article to be somewhat lop-sided in its approach to the topic...though perhaps the whole point was to address PO issues and not to address the other side's issues? At the end it paid lip-service to the idea of diversification of energy resources, but the rest of the article seemed to be more of an argument against just that. It struck me as being somewhat convenient in its choices of examples. It decried fuzzy logic (which I have to take the author's word for) and then talks in terms of "not necessarily," as if that was a counter-argument. It describes the Carter Administration's loss of money on a project that was, by my standards, practically in the dark ages...that is to say, it speaks of how PO advocates forget about technology increases and then itself uses an antiquated example of wasted money. Isn't that somewhat hypocritical?
I'm a skeptic of either "side" because both have invested interests. To me, the fact that oil is (thus far) non-renewable says all I need to know about why more R&D needs to be working toward other energy. That it is our society's life-blood in so many ways brings to my mind the lessons of my greatgramma: don't put your eggs in one basket. That these companies always seem to manage a profit (record profits at times) while describing the "need" to raise prices at times strikes me as rather convenient. That they make as much money as they do also pisses me off because some of it is blood money.
Competition is supposed to be the backbone of capitolism isn't it? Why shouldn't we invest in other options then? Oil companies do whatever they can to stamp out competition. F them.
I also think the political arguments surrounding where most of our oil comes from is a perfectly good basis for questioning our current way of doing things...particulalry when they're the same arguments we use to work against similarly run countries who have no oil. The whole system seems rife with BS and that's why I'm so anti-oil...as I fill up my car with some of the cheapest gas in the world, bitching about the price.
Meh...

That said, i recognize I'm about as ignorant as the next guy when it comes to this topic, but, for the sake of argument and education, there's my view for whatever it may be worth.
Take care,
Matt

Last edited by mathewjgano : 03-08-2011 at 03:49 PM.

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Old 03-08-2011, 03:48 PM   #20
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Re: Po

Quote:
Tenyu Hamaki wrote: View Post
Fusion, if it were real, would be the worst thing possible for us.
And why is that?
Also, by reconnecting to mother nature, are you suggesting we abandon technology efforts?

Gambarimashyo!
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Old 03-08-2011, 04:06 PM   #21
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Re: Po

Quote:
Matthew Gano wrote: View Post
And why is that?
Also, by reconnecting to mother nature, are you suggesting we abandon technology efforts?
Jevons Paradox.

Increasing energy technology only increases our phantom carrying capacity.

Fossil fuel extraction graph = population graph.

AGW and ecological destruction may reduce carrying capacity to zero.

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Old 03-08-2011, 04:18 PM   #22
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Re: Po

Quote:
Tenyu Hamaki wrote: View Post
David,

You mentioned before ad homs are used when facts are absent.
No ad ad hominem, stating the facts of his credentials in his words. It shows his credibility.

dps
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Old 03-08-2011, 04:21 PM   #23
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Re: Po

Tenyu,

Whether it is good or bad technology for humanity and the planet is a separate question from whether it is a "real" prospect.

I don't know the answer to that second question, but I think its a mistake (perhaps for someone like you, who appears passionately opposed to fusion, as much as for someone who advocates it) to overlook "progress" towards putting the technology into practice.

It may be a bad idea without being a pipe dream of a bad idea.

Respectfully

David Henderson
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Old 03-08-2011, 04:44 PM   #24
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Re: Po

David H,

I think it's both, and almost everyone who studies oil professionally, the biggest industry in the world, thinks likewise.

Best case scenario for this pipe dream is ten years from now? Look at where we are in terms of net oil production in 2020 on the first graph in this thread. Not to mention you still can't power cars, trucks, planes or ships the arteries and veins of the global economy with electricity.

All agriculture, food production, food delivery requires cheap oil. There's no replacement.
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Old 03-08-2011, 05:47 PM   #25
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Re: Po

Quote:
Tenyu Hamaki wrote: View Post
Jevons Paradox.

Increasing energy technology only increases our phantom carrying capacity.
That's a rather broad statement...and makes some rather large assumptions. You're suggesting that if we were able to use fusion power we would only feel more empowered and use it up faster? Cotton Gin all over again?
I disagree that it is the necessary result. The cynic in me would be inclined to agree with you, but that part of me isn't exactly based on what is actually possible.
So you think no energy technology should be sought? Should we live as the other great apes do?

Last edited by mathewjgano : 03-08-2011 at 05:49 PM.

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