What are your chances?

Brian Dewey wrote: Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking).

I'd agree with this. Having experience in both Aikido and BJJ, I would say that generally speakng (there are many exceptions of course...) Aikido is suited to Self-Defense, and BJJ is suited to Fighting, or, a Fight. There is a huge difference. That doesn't discount their respective usefulness in the "opposite" context.

"Don't mistake the map for the land"
-Ken Wilber

I feel that statics are wonderful when used for selling something, studying something and making a point.

I've been in sales for many years and statics have been my best "weapon."

In all reality, I personally don't think it makes a difference, which art you study.

If Rickson Gracie would have trained in bullshido, then bullshido would seem to be the strongest art around.

Erik Calderon.

Brian Dewey wrote: Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking).

I suppose the person presenting the data is important when looking at the data. To address this I will say that I study Yoseikan Aikido. This includes all the usual Aikido, plus most judo, including all the ground work, and karate. From this point of view I have ground training.

The reason for posting the data was not to promote one view over another. It was to be objective, and state that here are the numbers, you draw your conclusion, but I will add my bit.

If we look at assaults it is 2 to 1 for you being assaulted by one person, if you look at robberies it is 2 to 3 against if being one person. That suggests that BJJ is better for dealing with an assault, and Aikido is better at dealing with a mugging. But this seems like a pointless observation.

I am indeed saying we should be aware of all situations, and be able to deal with all of them.

Regards,

This is a pretty good thread.

I think the statistics are helpful and would like to see something similar for the U.S.

Many years ago, I read a study that analyzed a significant number of knife attacks and found that the most common attack was an overhand, icepick - type strike to the head, shoulders and upper back. This kind of strike is much like shomen uchi, and the study made me feel more comfortable with the relevance of that strike to my training.

A very good book that deals with this same topic is "The Gift of Fear" by Gavin Debecker. The most important lesson I took from that book was how to realistically assess the level of danger I may be in, and act accordingly.

Finally, I'll make a case for what Meik Skoss called "Gundo" or "Gunjutsu" in this essay: http://www.koryu.com/library/mskoss5.html

Check out the books he recommends.

In this nation, the criminals very often do have guns. We've had a bunch of shootings this year in Harrisburg, PA. But in almost all of the cases, the people involved knew each other. Drugs were a factor in a lot of the shootings too.

The bottom line is, like others have said, stay out of trouble and surround yourself with good people who also stay out of trouble.

Regards,

-Drew

Matthew, you live in a charming place

Heheh...it's not as bad as it may sound...the was certainly a worst-case image...there is plenty of theft there, but it certainly could be a lot worse. To be fair, I've always had trouble-makers for friends...or at least, friends who dabbled in trouble. I think this accounts for much of my image of Everett but I know many people from my area who don't have anywhere near the same number of stories. Most people there just work hard and raise their families.

Nice lesson. Your father taught you to be aware, and your common sense may have made the difference.

Thank you; I'm very proud of my dad and the lessons he taught me. I think ultimately that's what it all comes down to: awareness. Statistics can give us a general sense of things...a starting point perhaps, but crime happens everywhere given a long enough time-line.
Take care.

Matthew Gano wrote: Thank you; I'm very proud of my dad and the lessons he taught me. I think ultimately that's what it all comes down to: awareness. Statistics can give us a general sense of things...a starting point perhaps, but crime happens everywhere given a long enough time-line.

These are the points I want to make with this thread

Regards,

Quote... <Someone said, chance favors the prepared mind (and body).>

To my way of thinking, this is probably the most concise point of view expressing my own thoughts posted so far.

I love Aikido. Gonna start the judo class soon, too, so I can get some ne-waza chops as well. plan for different contingencies
regards
Lan

Graham Wild wrote: These are the points I want to make with this thread Regards,

Well then I'm glad to express what great points you're making!
(That's not conceited of me is it?)
Cheers!

Brian Dewey wrote: Interesting thread thus far. In regards to statistics: I live in St. Louis, which was given the honor of being the most dangerous city in the U.S. in 2006 (cf. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15475741/). Because of that statistic, do I feel frightened and insecure? No. Are my martial arts skills "good enough" to enable me to successfully defend myself? Maybe. Would doing some supplimentary training in BJJ improve my chances of fending off an attacker? Possibly. Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking). My suggestion is to read the following article in its entirety: http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/grappling.html. Although it's a Marc "Animal" MacYoung production, it is nonetheless food for thought and I found it well-reasoned. It's worth exploring the rest of the site, but be forewarned of MacYoung's "I was such a bad-ass" soliloquies that frequently pop up...just dismiss them. Otherwise, he has some pretty good info.

Graham Wild wrote: I suppose the person presenting the data is important when looking at the data. To address this I will say that I study Yoseikan Aikido. This includes all the usual Aikido, plus most judo, including all the ground work, and karate. From this point of view I have ground training. The reason for posting the data was not to promote one view over another. It was to be objective, and state that here are the numbers, you draw your conclusion, but I will add my bit. If we look at assaults it is 2 to 1 for you being assaulted by one person, if you look at robberies it is 2 to 3 against if being one person. That suggests that BJJ is better for dealing with an assault, and Aikido is better at dealing with a mugging. But this seems like a pointless observation. I am indeed saying we should be aware of all situations, and be able to deal with all of them. Regards,

The saying "numbers don't lie" is true. However, statistics are not neccessarily reliable because there are too many variables. That was my point in posting the link concerning my hometown: only certain parts of town (particularly the northside) are responsible for generating those crime statistics.

I wasn't dismissing BJJ, Judo newaza, or any other method of groundfighting...sorry if I was giving that impression. Rather, I was simply offering the "loyal opposition" in this regard...that one who takes self-defense seriously should not rely upon one skillset only, no matter what it is. As you well know, there are folks (and I do not include you in this bunch) who patrol this board that are religious zealots when it comes to grappling. A vital component of awareness is to expect the unexpected. And for the grappling faithful, this means that not all (or even "most") fights or assaults will inevitably go to the ground...even if they want them to and try their best to take it to the ground.

Of course, the reverse holds true for Aikido or any other "stand up" martial art. For those Aikidoka who study with self-defense primarily in mind, dismissing groundfighting is simply foolish.

I know what you are saying. I am in a conversation with some of them on the techniques board.

I think it is very clear that if all you ever did was ground work with NO stand up (if you learn BJJ from a Gracie you do stand up self defence), and three guys decide that they want a piece of you, and you rely on your natural reactions, you will have problem. But, if you're a woman who wants to learn self defence, there is a good chance you may be in a sexual assault. So this sort of training is relevant.

I know here in Perth, last month, a woman got grabbed in a lane way, her pram got knocked over and her baby got injured. She had to fight of her assaulter on the floor. In that sort of situation, I would love to here about a woman popping the shoulder of a punk who tried to sexually assault her because she had done self defence that included ground work.

I think you just need balanced training. But you decide what the balance should be.

I will say as a Physicist we like the statement, "Lies, damn lies, and statistics!" But all I have done here is present raw numbers, I haven't had the chance to manipulate them to say what I want them to

Regards,

Since I am probably the one from the other thread
Statistic are like excel spreadsheet in a management meeting, you can make them say what you want.

We could use Graham example as say that since you are
You could say that if you are a man you have 2 chances on 3 to be assaulted buy a single opponent hence ground fight is very useful.
Or
You could say that you have 2 chances on 3 to be mugged by several opponents
(A UK wide crime survey from 2001/2002 gave 6 on 10 mugging being done by several opponents)
And that is exactly what proponent of each school of thought will do, and it is equally meaningless.
We could argue about the actual type of crime age repartition, the reported vs actual and the correcting coefficient they use. Not to mention the case when they were several people but only one attacked nonsensical argument
eventually we could come up with generic rules for each gender by age category.
It is a statistic and it is designed to show trends. Those statistics will tell you what is the likelihood, you need to put that in the conctext of your own activities.

IE, if you neighbour comes at you because you daughter kicked the ball in his veranda for 484945154 time and assuming he catches you in the corner of your garden where you can not retreat.
If he comes with no weapons to kick your arse on your lawn, you do not need statistic to see that it is going to be good opportunity to use grappling if your are good at it.

If the same neighbour comes in with his two sons hovering around and/or with pick axe handle (veranda glass are quite expensive after all), you deserve the hiding you will get to go to the floor, willingly or unwillingly and good or not good at wrestling.



For more stats
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/cvict.htm
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/crime-v...violent-crime/

phil

Phil,

I am sorry to say but that is a rather silly example of a self defence situation. Tell your daughter to stop kicking the ball over the fence or Mr Wilson is going keep her ball

I was not referring to you, more those who suggest that BJJ is the be all and end all. Before the attacks come BJJers, please remember I do a style of Aikido which includes ground fighting

The point of these NATIONAL AVERAGES FOR AUSTRALIA (btw they are raw numbers from the last census, so statistics are even given for unreported crimes, hence no correction factor, just the total number of people who said they had been the victim of a the crime is given) is to show that balance, as we promote in our Aikido techniques, should be applied to the art in general. As I previously stated, you as the individual or teacher should decide what the balance is.

If it is not obvious, that is a balanced training regime.

Regards,

Graham Wild wrote: Phil, I am sorry to say but that is a rather silly example of a self defence situation. Tell your daughter to stop kicking the ball over the fence or Mr Wilson is going keep her ball I was not referring to you, more those who suggest that BJJ is the be all and end all. Before the attacks come BJJers, please remember I do a style of Aikido which includes ground fighting The point of these NATIONAL AVERAGES FOR AUSTRALIA (btw they are raw numbers from the last census, so statistics are even given for unreported crimes, hence no correction factor, just the total number of people who said they had been the victim of a the crime is given) is to show that balance, as we promote in our Aikido techniques, should be applied to the art in general. As I previously stated, you as the individual or teacher should decide what the balance is. If it is not obvious, that is a balanced training regime. Regards,

Do not be sorry, it was a silly example.
(That being said I never really listened to what my parents told me..) 

Speaking of sorry, well I am as well as I did not really get the meaning of your original message.

As well those statistics are quite good, because it put a little bit of real touch to RBSD.
I mean it is hardly Beirut or Sarajevo out there.

Ps
Yes I do remember that you do ground fighting, and to my eternal shame I like rolling around with my BJJ nephew, (not that I am any good but it is fun

Philippe Willaume wrote: That being said I never really listened to what my parents told me..

I would say the world MAY be a better place if we all did listen to our parents Then again, some people get things like racism from their parents

Philippe Willaume wrote: As well those statistics are quite good, because it put a little bit of real touch to RBSD. I mean it is hardly Beirut or Sarajevo out there.

That was the idea. And no, Australia is not a war zone, but neither is the UK and the US. But the victim of an assault or armed robbery may feel like that at the time. Hence the reason I like the self defence aspect of martial arts. I remember hearing on the news last year about a little girl here. Someone tried to grab her and pull her into a car. She managed to scream and kick her way free. She did Tae Kwon Do or Karate, and was 12, I think.

Regards,

Hi Drew, long time no see! Hope the family is well!

Drew Ames wrote: I'll make a case for what Meik Skoss called "Gundo" or "Gunjutsu" in this essay: http://www.koryu.com/library/mskoss5.html

I love this list of books and think Meik makes some excellent points here. Notice also his plug for Judo/grappling/freestyle training (even mentioning the Gracie family)? I particularly like his quote of:

"it seems logical to me to explore this kind of thing, either as an adjunct to one's regular practice or as a form of special research".

Certain methods of training (within aikido, yoseikan, etc.) may already do this. If one's training doesn't, depending on one's goals, he or she might want to do some of their own "research".