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wildaikido
09-04-2007, 09:20 AM
A lot of recent threads (and past threads) have been about Aikido and BJJ, or the effectiveness of Aikido. As a scientist and mathematician I would like to present some facts, and not just opinions, as to what you can expect in a real world situation.

Having said that, the numbers I am present are averages for Australia as a country. Your own individual awareness will have to make judgement calls about the street your on, or the suburb you are in. As I like to say, the point of Budo training is to develop awareness.

I have previously posted some information for females, and it went un-replied. So first I would like to restate them.

As a female you are most likely to be assaulted between the age of 15 to 24 (~42% of all incidences), and then between the age of 25 and 44(~29% of all incidences), by a family member (~42% of all incidences), or someone she knows in general (~81% of all incidences), in a home (~58% of all incidences). The number of offenders is most like to be one (82.2% of all incidences). The fact that she is being assaulted by someone she knows suggests that in these cases it would be more be even more likely to be one.

As a male you are most likely to be assaulted between the age of 15 to 24 (~40% of all incidences), then 25 to 44 (~28% of all incidences) buy a stranger (~51%), not in a home (~70%). Here are the important numbers for us in Aikido! A guy is most likely to be assaulted by ONE person at 65.8%. Then by THREE OR MORE 18.0% of the time and finally by TWO 13.4% of the time.

Assault is usually a crime of response (specifically for males). That is, something happens to cause the assault. But that does not make these statistics any less important. What may be more relevant is statistics for robberies, such as muggings.

Robberies are mostly unarmed (64%) then with a knife (18%), a gun (5%), and a syringe (2%). Of those robberies that are unarmed, most occur on the street (50%), in retail locations (13%) and on transport (12%). Males victims account for most of these robberies (61%) and females less so (31%). Males are mostly between the age of 15 and 19 (~42%), and 20 to 24 (29%). Females are most likely between 15 and 24 (~56%).Of the armed robberies most occur in retail (43%) and on the street (26%). Males victims again make up most of these robberies (49%) and females much less (18%). The age of the male is typically 15 to 24 (~68%), and the typical age of a female victim is 20 to 24 (~35%).

Of these robberies, most male victims have one offender at 40.7%, three or more offenders 33.0%, and two offenders at 22.2%. Female victims of robberies mostly have one offender at 41.1%, two offenders at 24%, and three of more offenders at 22.9%.

As a female considering self defence the most important statistic is the 82.2% of assaults will only have one offender. Hence, the one on one aspect of Aikido is the most useful aspect. Training for multiple opponents is of significantly less importance. The second most important statistic is the 81% of assaults are committed by someone she knows. This then makes arts like karate very impractical in my opinion as a woman may be reluctant to exchange blows with someone she knows. Also in my opinion the addition of ground work for females is invaluable, as one in four assaults in women are sexual assaults.

For a male it is clearly still more important to train against a single opponent, at 65.8%. The statistics for assaults and robberies state that three or more offenders are more likely than two. But the numbers are nowhere near as overwhelming as for females.

Most of the conclusions that can be drawn from these statistics are promising for Aikido. I would suggest that something like ground work would not be counter productive to add in Aikido training. This would not need to be at the level seen in BJJ, more so from cross training in Judo. From the point of view of weapons, the knife aspect of Aikido is also supported by the numbers.

I know this is long and full of numbers, but I though it was more useful then conjecture.

I also invite others to post statistics for their country so all of us can be informed

Regards,

crbateman
09-04-2007, 09:47 AM
With all due respect, I'm not sure this information is entirely relevant. I have never personally been assaulted by a statistic. Why would one want to train to survive 65% of the attacks he receives? Can he really discount that other 35%?? If your goal is self-defense, why not train to survive any mishap that may come your way? In self -defense, you use all weapons at your disposal, so a purely Aikido arsenal is ridiculous. Train in everything you can get hold of, and train often. Then hope that you never need the training out there in the real world.

wildaikido
09-04-2007, 10:12 AM
With all due respect, I'm not sure this information is entirely relevant. I have never personally been assaulted by a statistic. Why would one want to train to survive 65% of the attacks he receives? Can he really discount that other 35%?? If your goal is self-defense, why not train to survive any mishap that may come your way?

The context of the information was to address arguments like "Aikido is more relevant that BJJ because you are MORE likely to be attacked by more than one person." I am saying if you say the goal of training is self defence, and you are training in a method that develops your skill to avoid and escape from three opponents, and you forget to focus on one on one situations that can result in going to the ground, you are not training to defend yourself for all possible situations that come your way, let alone the most likely situation, one attacker.

I do train to deal with multiple opponents. I train to deal with fighting on the ground, I train to defend against an attacker armed with a knife. From the statistics, I am suggesting that this is important.

Regards,

Basia Halliop
09-04-2007, 10:25 AM
Males victims account for most of these robberies (61%) and females less so (31%).
...
Males victims again make up most of these robberies (49%) and females much less (18%).]

I found these bits funny if you do the math :), especially the second line. I imagine the discrepancy has to do not with 'other', but either with times where the sex of the victim wasn't recorded, or where there were multiple victims, or something like that ?

Your stats do also reinforce the idea that by far the first thing you should be doing if you're concerned about safety is being picky about who you spend your time with and where.

BTW I imagine that some of the stats regarding weapons will be different for Americans with their different approach to weapons.

Nick P.
09-04-2007, 10:27 AM
"Everybody's got plans...until they get hit."
-Mike Tyson

wildaikido
09-04-2007, 10:30 AM
I found these bits funny if you do the math :), especially the second line. I imagine the discrepancy has to do not with 'other', but either with times where the sex of the victim wasn't recorded, or where there were multiple victims, or something like that ?

Those numbers in particular included organisations, such as businesses, like if a convenience store or a "gas" station gets robbed. Hence I only included the numbers for individuals.

Your stats do also reinforce the idea that by far the first thing you should be doing if you're concerned about safety is being picky about who you spend your time with and where.

This is a great observation, especially for women.

BTW I imagine that some of the stats regarding weapons will be different for Americans with their different approach to weapons.

Hence the reason I invited people to post about other countries.

Regards,

James Davis
09-04-2007, 10:42 AM
When I got mugged, it was by seven guys. They didn't ask for my wallet; I just got jumped. Train for multiple attackers; It happens.:straightf

dps
09-04-2007, 11:52 AM
As a female you are most likely to be assaulted ..... by a family member (~42% of all incidences), or someone she knows in general (~81% of all incidences),...

Letting the people you know that you are learning a martial art for self defense is a deterrent.

David

Aikibu
09-04-2007, 12:02 PM
"Everybody's got plans...until they get hit."
-Mike Tyson

Actually it's "Everyone has a plan...Until they get hit in the mouth."

It's my sig line on a number of boards. :)

William Hazen

Ron Tisdale
09-04-2007, 12:06 PM
;) Yes, and it even holds true for the man who said it! The true test of a statement like that.

Best,
Ron

wildaikido
09-04-2007, 12:32 PM
Letting the people you know that you are learning a martial art for self defense is a deterrent.

David

I had a similar thought.

mathewjgano
09-04-2007, 12:44 PM
...as to what you can expect in a real world situation.Regards,

I don't have good stats, but I do have many friends who have been in a relatively "good" number of fights. I'd like to point out that so far I have never been in a fight though almost all of my buddies have been in more than a few. I don't think this is coincidence. I think if I were to try and describe the culture of my area it's that it is blue-collar, drug-riddled, suburban wannabe, "ghetto-light." Rolling Stone called us the meth capitol of the world not too long ago and it is the dirtiest meth at that. I have more than a few stories related to drugs. At my old apartment, a man was beat to death with a hammer as he opened the security door to the building. I later learned it was related to a drug deal.
That said, based on my little corner of the world, which has had one of the highest crime rates (mostly theft and drugs) of the local area (South Everett, Snohomish county, Washington state, USA), I think multiple attackers is fairly common, particularly when the one friend starts losing. For many people it's not about how well they fought, it's about how badly the other guy got beat. The most important thing in my mind is to consider your location and the people you're hanging around, even though stuff can happen anywhere, particularly where ever we have people trying to be "ghetto-fabulous." It's simply a popular thing. Even I have noticed an element of it in my personality and I've always abhored violence...but I grew up rapping to Eazy E and NWA in the 4th grade like the rest of my friends.
So, I know that's quite a jumble of thoughts...and not the clearest picture, and certainly not in line with the scientific approach you're trying for. However, I think the one thing those stats you gave fall short on is the context in which those things happened and I think that is where the real story probably lies.
When I worked nights at Denny Park in Seattle (where the joke is that hookers charge per the number of teeth they have), I was aware of every corner I turned/passed and every face I saw. I made eye contact, but never stared, and I positioned myself according to my surrounding as best I could muster. I tried to not look a victim, but not look pompous either. For all I know though, I was simply lucky to never have been messed with, though I was always alone when I walked the 4 blocks between the two buildings I worked at. There was a study I read (don't recall where) which indicated that body-language is one of the main factors for getting "jumped."
I think overall my dad's advice of "look before you leap" has been the most useful. I look as far down the path as I can and if I see something I don't like, I try to change course without it looking like it's in response to what I saw.
...ok found some stats comparing Everett, Seattle and the national average. I included non-topical crimes like autotheft more to demonstrate the local culture than anything else.
Latest 2005 Crimes per 100,000 People:

Everett; Seattle; National

Murder: 3.1 4.3 6.9
Forcible Rape: 49.28 23.83 32.2
Robbery: 177.6 277.4 195.4
Aggravated Assault: 321.3 403.8 340.1
Burglary: 1305.9 1167.3 814.5
Larceny Theft: 4356.2 4686.9 2734.7
Vehicle Theft: 2140.6 1651 526.5
I think it's important to bear in mind these are reported crimes. I think many aggravated assault situations go unnoticed because one of the parties left or they were in discrete locations. What exactly this means with regard to one's chances...well of course that varies from person to person.

wildaikido
09-04-2007, 01:09 PM
I am going to do what every scientist loves to do, reference myself :D

Having said that, the numbers I am present are averages for Australia as a country. Your own individual awareness will have to make judgement calls about the street your on, or the suburb you are in. As I like to say, the point of Budo training is to develop awareness.

Matthew, you live in a charming place :eek:

I think overall my dad's advice of "look before you leap" has been the most useful. I look as far down the path as I can and if I see something I don't like, I try to change course without it looking like it's in response to what I saw.

Nice lesson. Your father taught you to be aware, and your common sense may have made the difference.

Regards,

SeiserL
09-04-2007, 01:18 PM
I once heard (in a criminology text) that (in the US) criminal activity of all kinds is less that 10% of the total population, and that violent acts are less than 3%.
So 90% of the time, we have nothing to train for.
And 97% of the time we have little to train for.
But for that 3% of the time, we should be prepared.
What are my chances being an old man in a safe neighborhood who doesn't drink anymore? So small that I just train for the fun of it.

Roman Kremianski
09-04-2007, 01:20 PM
Statistics can all suddenly fly our the window by being at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Which is sort of why it's kind of silly to "train" for being jumped...just train for the sake of training, then when you do get jumped, you might get a little practice. :D

wildaikido
09-04-2007, 01:27 PM
I once heard (in a criminology text) that (in the US) criminal activity of all kinds is less that 10% of the total population, and that violent acts are less than 3%.
So 90% of the time, we have nothing to train for.
And 97% of the time we have little to train for.
But for that 3% of the time, we should be prepared.
What are my chances being an old man in a safe neighborhood who doesn't drink anymore? So small that I just train for the fun of it.

Lynn you old optimist :D

Statistics can all suddenly fly our the window by being at the wrong place at the wrong time.

No, you become one of the statistics :p

Which is sort of why it's kind of silly to "train" for being jumped...just train for the sake of training, then when you do get jumped, you might get a little practice. :D

The point of training in a self defence school is, well, for self defence. Hence I believe you need to know what to defend yourself against.

Regard,

Roman Kremianski
09-04-2007, 01:30 PM
No, you become one of the statistics

So you just become another addition to a collection of oddball incidents that try to tell people how often they'll get jumped.

Not saying statistics are totally useless...just saying you shouldn't be train for a percentage of something or a specific situation. Train to acquire skills, than use these skills wherever you see fit in life. Whether it's talking to someone, or putting someone on the floor.

wildaikido
09-04-2007, 01:36 PM
Hence why these statistics don't tell you anything. Because it's a collection of oddball incidents. Assaulted by one person 65% of the time? Many people have been "assaulted" by one person 99.9% of the time.

:disgust:

:confused:

Regards,

wildaikido
09-04-2007, 01:43 PM
People changing there posts, I don't know... But this one is better than the last one :p

So you just become another addition to a collection of oddball incidents that try to tell people how often they'll get jumped.

Oh contraire, I am saying what you could expect IF you get jumped. I have not included numbers about how likely it is you WILL be jumped.

Not saying statistics are totally useless...just saying you shouldn't be train for a percentage of something or a specific situation. Train to acquire skills, than use these skills wherever you see fit in life. Whether it's talking to someone, or putting someone on the floor.

I am suggesting though these numbers that should not just be mindful when we train, but how we train, if we have a purpose in mind.

Regards,

SeiserL
09-04-2007, 02:52 PM
IMHO, statistics are generalizations. Useful, but not always applicable.

IMHO, Murphy was a realist. If something can go wrong, it will go wrong, at the most inopportune time, and with me in the vicinity.

Someone said, chance favors the prepared mind (and body).

lbb
09-04-2007, 03:33 PM
I don't see a distortion or misuse of statistics at work here. As for statistics being generalizations, when you say something like, "If something can go wrong, it will go wrong," you're the pot calling the kettle black -- your generalization isn't even supported by data.

Mind you, I have no argument against people choosing to train because even a very low probability stranger-in-the-street attack is still too high for them. I think, though, that these statistics do say something about the validity of statements that criticize aikido because it doesn't (in the critic's opinion) provide master-it-in-six-months foolproof self-defense against being attacked by half a dozen Crack-Crazed Urban Scum(tm). My answer is and always has been: no, and in six months you won't be able to defend yourself against a herd of angry circus ponies, either. What's that you say? Where did I get the herd of angry circus ponies? The same place you got the half-dozen Crack-Crazed Urban Scum(tm).

If you want to worry about being attacked by circus ponies, that's your business, but don't try to tell me that budo is worthless, for self-defense or anything else, because it can't teach someone how to defend against them in three easy lessons.

Janet Rosen
09-04-2007, 05:11 PM
Most of us in developed world are more likely to be attacked by cars, curbs, staircases, edges of bathtubs, etc - in other words, falls and throws related to non-attacks - and developing awareness AND good non-conscious, in the body ukemi is the best defense.

Dewey
09-04-2007, 05:38 PM
Interesting thread thus far.

In regards to statistics: I live in St. Louis, which was given the honor of being the most dangerous city in the U.S. in 2006 (cf. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15475741/). Because of that statistic, do I feel frightened and insecure? No. Are my martial arts skills "good enough" to enable me to successfully defend myself? Maybe. Would doing some supplimentary training in BJJ improve my chances of fending off an attacker? Possibly.

Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking).

My suggestion is to read the following article in its entirety:
http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/grappling.html.
Although it's a Marc "Animal" MacYoung production, it is nonetheless food for thought and I found it well-reasoned. It's worth exploring the rest of the site, but be forewarned of MacYoung's "I was such a bad-ass" soliloquies that frequently pop up...just dismiss them. Otherwise, he has some pretty good info.

Aikibu
09-04-2007, 06:10 PM
Most of us in developed world are more likely to be attacked by cars, curbs, staircases, edges of bathtubs, etc - in other words, falls and throws related to non-attacks - and developing awareness AND good non-conscious, in the body ukemi is the best defense.

If you ever been to a country at war or a third world country it's quite humbling when I consider the biggest threat to my safety on a daily basis is some blond yackking on her cell phone while tooling down the P.C.H. in her Hummer not paying attention to the nice guy cruising along on his Vespa to Aikido Practice.

William Hazen

VESPAS ROCK DUDE!!!

dps
09-04-2007, 06:13 PM
Actually it's "Everyone has a plan...Until they get hit in the mouth.

Or have your ear bitten off.:)

David

Aiki1
09-04-2007, 06:54 PM
Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking).

I'd agree with this. Having experience in both Aikido and BJJ, I would say that generally speakng (there are many exceptions of course...) Aikido is suited to Self-Defense, and BJJ is suited to Fighting, or, a Fight. There is a huge difference. That doesn't discount their respective usefulness in the "opposite" context.

ChrisHein
09-05-2007, 01:15 AM
"Don't mistake the map for the land"
-Ken Wilber

Erik Calderon
09-05-2007, 02:39 AM
I feel that statics are wonderful when used for selling something, studying something and making a point.

I've been in sales for many years and statics have been my best "weapon."

In all reality, I personally don't think it makes a difference, which art you study.

If Rickson Gracie would have trained in bullshido, then bullshido would seem to be the strongest art around.

Erik Calderon.

wildaikido
09-05-2007, 02:59 AM
Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking).

I suppose the person presenting the data is important when looking at the data. To address this I will say that I study Yoseikan Aikido. This includes all the usual Aikido, plus most judo, including all the ground work, and karate. From this point of view I have ground training.

The reason for posting the data was not to promote one view over another. It was to be objective, and state that here are the numbers, you draw your conclusion, but I will add my bit.

If we look at assaults it is 2 to 1 for you being assaulted by one person, if you look at robberies it is 2 to 3 against if being one person. That suggests that BJJ is better for dealing with an assault, and Aikido is better at dealing with a mugging. But this seems like a pointless observation.

I am indeed saying we should be aware of all situations, and be able to deal with all of them.

Regards,

jxa127
09-05-2007, 10:41 AM
This is a pretty good thread.

I think the statistics are helpful and would like to see something similar for the U.S.

Many years ago, I read a study that analyzed a significant number of knife attacks and found that the most common attack was an overhand, icepick - type strike to the head, shoulders and upper back. This kind of strike is much like shomen uchi, and the study made me feel more comfortable with the relevance of that strike to my training.

A very good book that deals with this same topic is "The Gift of Fear" by Gavin Debecker. The most important lesson I took from that book was how to realistically assess the level of danger I may be in, and act accordingly.

Finally, I'll make a case for what Meik Skoss called "Gundo" or "Gunjutsu" in this essay: http://www.koryu.com/library/mskoss5.html

Check out the books he recommends.

In this nation, the criminals very often do have guns. We've had a bunch of shootings this year in Harrisburg, PA. But in almost all of the cases, the people involved knew each other. Drugs were a factor in a lot of the shootings too.

The bottom line is, like others have said, stay out of trouble and surround yourself with good people who also stay out of trouble.

Regards,

-Drew

mathewjgano
09-05-2007, 02:19 PM
Matthew, you live in a charming place :eek:
Heheh...it's not as bad as it may sound...the was certainly a worst-case image...there is plenty of theft there, but it certainly could be a lot worse. To be fair, I've always had trouble-makers for friends...or at least, friends who dabbled in trouble. I think this accounts for much of my image of Everett but I know many people from my area who don't have anywhere near the same number of stories. Most people there just work hard and raise their families.

Nice lesson. Your father taught you to be aware, and your common sense may have made the difference.
Thank you; I'm very proud of my dad and the lessons he taught me. I think ultimately that's what it all comes down to: awareness. Statistics can give us a general sense of things...a starting point perhaps, but crime happens everywhere given a long enough time-line.
Take care.

wildaikido
09-05-2007, 02:46 PM
Thank you; I'm very proud of my dad and the lessons he taught me. I think ultimately that's what it all comes down to: awareness. Statistics can give us a general sense of things...a starting point perhaps, but crime happens everywhere given a long enough time-line.

These are the points I want to make with this thread ;)

Regards,

Lan Powers
09-05-2007, 03:13 PM
Quote... <Someone said, chance favors the prepared mind (and body).>

To my way of thinking, this is probably the most concise point of view expressing my own thoughts posted so far.

I love Aikido. Gonna start the judo class soon, too, so I can get some ne-waza chops as well. :) plan for different contingencies
regards
Lan

mathewjgano
09-05-2007, 04:21 PM
These are the points I want to make with this thread ;)

Regards,

Well then I'm glad to express what great points you're making!
(That's not conceited of me is it?):p
Cheers!

Dewey
09-06-2007, 06:08 AM
Interesting thread thus far.

In regards to statistics: I live in St. Louis, which was given the honor of being the most dangerous city in the U.S. in 2006 (cf. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15475741/). Because of that statistic, do I feel frightened and insecure? No. Are my martial arts skills "good enough" to enable me to successfully defend myself? Maybe. Would doing some supplimentary training in BJJ improve my chances of fending off an attacker? Possibly.

Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking).

My suggestion is to read the following article in its entirety:
http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/grappling.html.
Although it's a Marc "Animal" MacYoung production, it is nonetheless food for thought and I found it well-reasoned. It's worth exploring the rest of the site, but be forewarned of MacYoung's "I was such a bad-ass" soliloquies that frequently pop up...just dismiss them. Otherwise, he has some pretty good info.

I suppose the person presenting the data is important when looking at the data. To address this I will say that I study Yoseikan Aikido. This includes all the usual Aikido, plus most judo, including all the ground work, and karate. From this point of view I have ground training.

The reason for posting the data was not to promote one view over another. It was to be objective, and state that here are the numbers, you draw your conclusion, but I will add my bit.

If we look at assaults it is 2 to 1 for you being assaulted by one person, if you look at robberies it is 2 to 3 against if being one person. That suggests that BJJ is better for dealing with an assault, and Aikido is better at dealing with a mugging. But this seems like a pointless observation.

I am indeed saying we should be aware of all situations, and be able to deal with all of them.

Regards,

The saying "numbers don't lie" is true. However, statistics are not neccessarily reliable because there are too many variables. That was my point in posting the link concerning my hometown: only certain parts of town (particularly the northside) are responsible for generating those crime statistics.

I wasn't dismissing BJJ, Judo newaza, or any other method of groundfighting...sorry if I was giving that impression. Rather, I was simply offering the "loyal opposition" in this regard...that one who takes self-defense seriously should not rely upon one skillset only, no matter what it is. As you well know, there are folks (and I do not include you in this bunch) who patrol this board that are religious zealots when it comes to grappling. A vital component of awareness is to expect the unexpected. And for the grappling faithful, this means that not all (or even "most") fights or assaults will inevitably go to the ground...even if they want them to and try their best to take it to the ground.

Of course, the reverse holds true for Aikido or any other "stand up" martial art. For those Aikidoka who study with self-defense primarily in mind, dismissing groundfighting is simply foolish.

wildaikido
09-06-2007, 08:02 AM
I know what you are saying. I am in a conversation with some of them on the techniques board.

I think it is very clear that if all you ever did was ground work with NO stand up (if you learn BJJ from a Gracie you do stand up self defence), and three guys decide that they want a piece of you, and you rely on your natural reactions, you will have problem. But, if you’re a woman who wants to learn self defence, there is a good chance you may be in a sexual assault. So this sort of training is relevant.

I know here in Perth, last month, a woman got grabbed in a lane way, her pram got knocked over and her baby got injured. She had to fight of her assaulter on the floor. In that sort of situation, I would love to here about a woman popping the shoulder of a punk who tried to sexually assault her because she had done self defence that included ground work.

I think you just need balanced training. But you decide what the balance should be.

I will say as a Physicist we like the statement, "Lies, damn lies, and statistics!" But all I have done here is present raw numbers, I haven't had the chance to manipulate them to say what I want them to :D

Regards,

philippe willaume
09-06-2007, 12:34 PM
Since I am probably the one from the other thread
Statistic are like excel spreadsheet in a management meeting, you can make them say what you want.

We could use Graham example as say that since you are
You could say that if you are a man you have 2 chances on 3 to be assaulted buy a single opponent hence ground fight is very useful.
Or
You could say that you have 2 chances on 3 to be mugged by several opponents
(A UK wide crime survey from 2001/2002 gave 6 on 10 mugging being done by several opponents)
And that is exactly what proponent of each school of thought will do, and it is equally meaningless.
We could argue about the actual type of crime age repartition, the reported vs actual and the correcting coefficient they use. Not to mention the case when they were several people but only one attacked nonsensical argument
eventually we could come up with generic rules for each gender by age category.
It is a statistic and it is designed to show trends. Those statistics will tell you what is the likelihood, you need to put that in the conctext of your own activities.

IE, if you neighbour comes at you because you daughter kicked the ball in his veranda for 484945154 time and assuming he catches you in the corner of your garden where you can not retreat.
If he comes with no weapons to kick your arse on your lawn, you do not need statistic to see that it is going to be good opportunity to use grappling if your are good at it.

If the same neighbour comes in with his two sons hovering around and/or with pick axe handle (veranda glass are quite expensive after all), you deserve the hiding you will get to go to the floor, willingly or unwillingly and good or not good at wrestling.



For more stats
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/cvict.htm
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/crime-victims/reducing-crime/violent-crime/

phil

wildaikido
09-06-2007, 08:15 PM
Phil,

I am sorry to say but that is a rather silly example of a self defence situation. Tell your daughter to stop kicking the ball over the fence or Mr Wilson is going keep her ball :D

I was not referring to you, more those who suggest that BJJ is the be all and end all. Before the attacks come BJJers, please remember I do a style of Aikido which includes ground fighting :p

The point of these NATIONAL AVERAGES FOR AUSTRALIA (btw they are raw numbers from the last census, so statistics are even given for unreported crimes, hence no correction factor, just the total number of people who said they had been the victim of a the crime is given) is to show that balance, as we promote in our Aikido techniques, should be applied to the art in general. As I previously stated, you as the individual or teacher should decide what the balance is.

If it is not obvious, that is a balanced training regime.

Regards,

philippe willaume
09-07-2007, 06:43 AM
Phil,

I am sorry to say but that is a rather silly example of a self defence situation. Tell your daughter to stop kicking the ball over the fence or Mr Wilson is going keep her ball :D

I was not referring to you, more those who suggest that BJJ is the be all and end all. Before the attacks come BJJers, please remember I do a style of Aikido which includes ground fighting :p

The point of these NATIONAL AVERAGES FOR AUSTRALIA (btw they are raw numbers from the last census, so statistics are even given for unreported crimes, hence no correction factor, just the total number of people who said they had been the victim of a the crime is given) is to show that balance, as we promote in our Aikido techniques, should be applied to the art in general. As I previously stated, you as the individual or teacher should decide what the balance is.

If it is not obvious, that is a balanced training regime.

Regards,
Do not be sorry, it was a silly example.
(That being said I never really listened to what my parents told me..) 

Speaking of sorry, well I am as well as I did not really get the meaning of your original message.

As well those statistics are quite good, because it put a little bit of real touch to RBSD.
I mean it is hardly Beirut or Sarajevo out there.

Ps
Yes I do remember that you do ground fighting, and to my eternal shame I like rolling around with my BJJ nephew, (not that I am any good but it is fun

wildaikido
09-07-2007, 08:03 AM
That being said I never really listened to what my parents told me..

I would say the world MAY be a better place if we all did listen to our parents :D Then again, some people get things like racism from their parents :(

As well those statistics are quite good, because it put a little bit of real touch to RBSD.
I mean it is hardly Beirut or Sarajevo out there.

That was the idea. And no, Australia is not a war zone, but neither is the UK and the US. But the victim of an assault or armed robbery may feel like that at the time. Hence the reason I like the self defence aspect of martial arts. I remember hearing on the news last year about a little girl here. Someone tried to grab her and pull her into a car. She managed to scream and kick her way free. She did Tae Kwon Do or Karate, and was 12, I think.

Regards,

Budd
09-07-2007, 08:26 AM
Hi Drew, long time no see! Hope the family is well!

I'll make a case for what Meik Skoss called "Gundo" or "Gunjutsu" in this essay: http://www.koryu.com/library/mskoss5.html


I love this list of books and think Meik makes some excellent points here. Notice also his plug for Judo/grappling/freestyle training (even mentioning the Gracie family)? I particularly like his quote of:

"it seems logical to me to explore this kind of thing, either as an adjunct to one's regular practice or as a form of special research".

Certain methods of training (within aikido, yoseikan, etc.) may already do this. If one's training doesn't, depending on one's goals, he or she might want to do some of their own "research".