I confess I haven't read the whole thread. Just replying to the OP, I would say there is only one way to find out how effective you really are: Ask some ukes not to cooperate. Also, have them attack in a more realistic way - from short distance, without exaggerated movements etc.
Whatever the outcome, take it for granted that you will
look awkward compared to the nice choreographies that you are used to. But you will start seeing what is and what is not truly effective - and what it takes to make it so. Thus giving you the chance to develop confidence. And there can be positive surprises, too.
Aikido is a way that never ends. Good luck on it!