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Old 09-04-2007, 09:20 AM   #1
wildaikido
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What are your chances?

A lot of recent threads (and past threads) have been about Aikido and BJJ, or the effectiveness of Aikido. As a scientist and mathematician I would like to present some facts, and not just opinions, as to what you can expect in a real world situation.

Having said that, the numbers I am present are averages for Australia as a country. Your own individual awareness will have to make judgement calls about the street your on, or the suburb you are in. As I like to say, the point of Budo training is to develop awareness.

I have previously posted some information for females, and it went un-replied. So first I would like to restate them.

As a female you are most likely to be assaulted between the age of 15 to 24 (~42% of all incidences), and then between the age of 25 and 44(~29% of all incidences), by a family member (~42% of all incidences), or someone she knows in general (~81% of all incidences), in a home (~58% of all incidences). The number of offenders is most like to be one (82.2% of all incidences). The fact that she is being assaulted by someone she knows suggests that in these cases it would be more be even more likely to be one.

As a male you are most likely to be assaulted between the age of 15 to 24 (~40% of all incidences), then 25 to 44 (~28% of all incidences) buy a stranger (~51%), not in a home (~70%). Here are the important numbers for us in Aikido! A guy is most likely to be assaulted by ONE person at 65.8%. Then by THREE OR MORE 18.0% of the time and finally by TWO 13.4% of the time.

Assault is usually a crime of response (specifically for males). That is, something happens to cause the assault. But that does not make these statistics any less important. What may be more relevant is statistics for robberies, such as muggings.

Robberies are mostly unarmed (64%) then with a knife (18%), a gun (5%), and a syringe (2%). Of those robberies that are unarmed, most occur on the street (50%), in retail locations (13%) and on transport (12%). Males victims account for most of these robberies (61%) and females less so (31%). Males are mostly between the age of 15 and 19 (~42%), and 20 to 24 (29%). Females are most likely between 15 and 24 (~56%).Of the armed robberies most occur in retail (43%) and on the street (26%). Males victims again make up most of these robberies (49%) and females much less (18%). The age of the male is typically 15 to 24 (~68%), and the typical age of a female victim is 20 to 24 (~35%).

Of these robberies, most male victims have one offender at 40.7%, three or more offenders 33.0%, and two offenders at 22.2%. Female victims of robberies mostly have one offender at 41.1%, two offenders at 24%, and three of more offenders at 22.9%.

As a female considering self defence the most important statistic is the 82.2% of assaults will only have one offender. Hence, the one on one aspect of Aikido is the most useful aspect. Training for multiple opponents is of significantly less importance. The second most important statistic is the 81% of assaults are committed by someone she knows. This then makes arts like karate very impractical in my opinion as a woman may be reluctant to exchange blows with someone she knows. Also in my opinion the addition of ground work for females is invaluable, as one in four assaults in women are sexual assaults.

For a male it is clearly still more important to train against a single opponent, at 65.8%. The statistics for assaults and robberies state that three or more offenders are more likely than two. But the numbers are nowhere near as overwhelming as for females.

Most of the conclusions that can be drawn from these statistics are promising for Aikido. I would suggest that something like ground work would not be counter productive to add in Aikido training. This would not need to be at the level seen in BJJ, more so from cross training in Judo. From the point of view of weapons, the knife aspect of Aikido is also supported by the numbers.

I know this is long and full of numbers, but I though it was more useful then conjecture.

I also invite others to post statistics for their country so all of us can be informed

Regards,

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 09:47 AM   #2
crbateman
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Re: What are your chances?

With all due respect, I'm not sure this information is entirely relevant. I have never personally been assaulted by a statistic. Why would one want to train to survive 65% of the attacks he receives? Can he really discount that other 35%?? If your goal is self-defense, why not train to survive any mishap that may come your way? In self -defense, you use all weapons at your disposal, so a purely Aikido arsenal is ridiculous. Train in everything you can get hold of, and train often. Then hope that you never need the training out there in the real world.
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Old 09-04-2007, 10:12 AM   #3
wildaikido
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Clark Bateman wrote: View Post
With all due respect, I'm not sure this information is entirely relevant. I have never personally been assaulted by a statistic. Why would one want to train to survive 65% of the attacks he receives? Can he really discount that other 35%?? If your goal is self-defense, why not train to survive any mishap that may come your way?
The context of the information was to address arguments like "Aikido is more relevant that BJJ because you are MORE likely to be attacked by more than one person." I am saying if you say the goal of training is self defence, and you are training in a method that develops your skill to avoid and escape from three opponents, and you forget to focus on one on one situations that can result in going to the ground, you are not training to defend yourself for all possible situations that come your way, let alone the most likely situation, one attacker.

I do train to deal with multiple opponents. I train to deal with fighting on the ground, I train to defend against an attacker armed with a knife. From the statistics, I am suggesting that this is important.

Regards,

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 10:25 AM   #4
Basia Halliop
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Males victims account for most of these robberies (61%) and females less so (31%).
...
Males victims again make up most of these robberies (49%) and females much less (18%).]
I found these bits funny if you do the math , especially the second line. I imagine the discrepancy has to do not with 'other', but either with times where the sex of the victim wasn't recorded, or where there were multiple victims, or something like that ?

Your stats do also reinforce the idea that by far the first thing you should be doing if you're concerned about safety is being picky about who you spend your time with and where.

BTW I imagine that some of the stats regarding weapons will be different for Americans with their different approach to weapons.
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Old 09-04-2007, 10:27 AM   #5
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Re: What are your chances?

"Everybody's got plans...until they get hit."
-Mike Tyson

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Old 09-04-2007, 10:30 AM   #6
wildaikido
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Re: What are your chances?

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Basia Halliop wrote: View Post
I found these bits funny if you do the math , especially the second line. I imagine the discrepancy has to do not with 'other', but either with times where the sex of the victim wasn't recorded, or where there were multiple victims, or something like that ?
Those numbers in particular included organisations, such as businesses, like if a convenience store or a "gas" station gets robbed. Hence I only included the numbers for individuals.

Quote:
Basia Halliop wrote: View Post
Your stats do also reinforce the idea that by far the first thing you should be doing if you're concerned about safety is being picky about who you spend your time with and where.
This is a great observation, especially for women.

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Basia Halliop wrote: View Post
BTW I imagine that some of the stats regarding weapons will be different for Americans with their different approach to weapons.
Hence the reason I invited people to post about other countries.

Regards,

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 10:42 AM   #7
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Re: What are your chances?

When I got mugged, it was by seven guys. They didn't ask for my wallet; I just got jumped. Train for multiple attackers; It happens.

"The only difference between Congress and drunken sailors is that drunken sailors spend their own money." -Tom Feeney, representative from Florida
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Old 09-04-2007, 11:52 AM   #8
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Graham Wild wrote: View Post

As a female you are most likely to be assaulted ..... by a family member (~42% of all incidences), or someone she knows in general (~81% of all incidences),...
Letting the people you know that you are learning a martial art for self defense is a deterrent.

David
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:02 PM   #9
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Nick Pittson wrote: View Post
"Everybody's got plans...until they get hit."
-Mike Tyson
Actually it's "Everyone has a plan...Until they get hit in the mouth."

It's my sig line on a number of boards.

William Hazen
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:06 PM   #10
Ron Tisdale
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Re: What are your chances?

Yes, and it even holds true for the man who said it! The true test of a statement like that.

Best,
Ron

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Old 09-04-2007, 12:32 PM   #11
wildaikido
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
David Skaggs wrote: View Post
Letting the people you know that you are learning a martial art for self defense is a deterrent.

David
I had a similar thought.

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:44 PM   #12
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Graham Wild wrote: View Post
...as to what you can expect in a real world situation.Regards,
I don't have good stats, but I do have many friends who have been in a relatively "good" number of fights. I'd like to point out that so far I have never been in a fight though almost all of my buddies have been in more than a few. I don't think this is coincidence. I think if I were to try and describe the culture of my area it's that it is blue-collar, drug-riddled, suburban wannabe, "ghetto-light." Rolling Stone called us the meth capitol of the world not too long ago and it is the dirtiest meth at that. I have more than a few stories related to drugs. At my old apartment, a man was beat to death with a hammer as he opened the security door to the building. I later learned it was related to a drug deal.
That said, based on my little corner of the world, which has had one of the highest crime rates (mostly theft and drugs) of the local area (South Everett, Snohomish county, Washington state, USA), I think multiple attackers is fairly common, particularly when the one friend starts losing. For many people it's not about how well they fought, it's about how badly the other guy got beat. The most important thing in my mind is to consider your location and the people you're hanging around, even though stuff can happen anywhere, particularly where ever we have people trying to be "ghetto-fabulous." It's simply a popular thing. Even I have noticed an element of it in my personality and I've always abhored violence...but I grew up rapping to Eazy E and NWA in the 4th grade like the rest of my friends.
So, I know that's quite a jumble of thoughts...and not the clearest picture, and certainly not in line with the scientific approach you're trying for. However, I think the one thing those stats you gave fall short on is the context in which those things happened and I think that is where the real story probably lies.
When I worked nights at Denny Park in Seattle (where the joke is that hookers charge per the number of teeth they have), I was aware of every corner I turned/passed and every face I saw. I made eye contact, but never stared, and I positioned myself according to my surrounding as best I could muster. I tried to not look a victim, but not look pompous either. For all I know though, I was simply lucky to never have been messed with, though I was always alone when I walked the 4 blocks between the two buildings I worked at. There was a study I read (don't recall where) which indicated that body-language is one of the main factors for getting "jumped."
I think overall my dad's advice of "look before you leap" has been the most useful. I look as far down the path as I can and if I see something I don't like, I try to change course without it looking like it's in response to what I saw.
...ok found some stats comparing Everett, Seattle and the national average. I included non-topical crimes like autotheft more to demonstrate the local culture than anything else.
Latest 2005 Crimes per 100,000 People:

Everett; Seattle; National

Murder: 3.1 4.3 6.9
Forcible Rape: 49.28 23.83 32.2
Robbery: 177.6 277.4 195.4
Aggravated Assault: 321.3 403.8 340.1
Burglary: 1305.9 1167.3 814.5
Larceny Theft: 4356.2 4686.9 2734.7
Vehicle Theft: 2140.6 1651 526.5
I think it's important to bear in mind these are reported crimes. I think many aggravated assault situations go unnoticed because one of the parties left or they were in discrete locations. What exactly this means with regard to one's chances...well of course that varies from person to person.

Last edited by mathewjgano : 09-04-2007 at 12:51 PM.

Gambarimashyo!
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:09 PM   #13
wildaikido
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Re: What are your chances?

I am going to do what every scientist loves to do, reference myself

Quote:
Graham Wild wrote: View Post
Having said that, the numbers I am present are averages for Australia as a country. Your own individual awareness will have to make judgement calls about the street your on, or the suburb you are in. As I like to say, the point of Budo training is to develop awareness.
Matthew, you live in a charming place

Quote:
Matthew Gano wrote: View Post
I think overall my dad's advice of "look before you leap" has been the most useful. I look as far down the path as I can and if I see something I don't like, I try to change course without it looking like it's in response to what I saw.
Nice lesson. Your father taught you to be aware, and your common sense may have made the difference.

Regards,

Last edited by wildaikido : 09-04-2007 at 01:11 PM.

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:18 PM   #14
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Re: What are your chances?

I once heard (in a criminology text) that (in the US) criminal activity of all kinds is less that 10% of the total population, and that violent acts are less than 3%.
So 90% of the time, we have nothing to train for.
And 97% of the time we have little to train for.
But for that 3% of the time, we should be prepared.
What are my chances being an old man in a safe neighborhood who doesn't drink anymore? So small that I just train for the fun of it.

Lynn Seiser PhD
Yondan Aikido & FMA/JKD
We do not rise to the level of our expectations, but fall to the level of our training. Train well. KWATZ!
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:20 PM   #15
Roman Kremianski
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Re: What are your chances?

Statistics can all suddenly fly our the window by being at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Which is sort of why it's kind of silly to "train" for being jumped...just train for the sake of training, then when you do get jumped, you might get a little practice.
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:27 PM   #16
wildaikido
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Lynn Seiser wrote: View Post
I once heard (in a criminology text) that (in the US) criminal activity of all kinds is less that 10% of the total population, and that violent acts are less than 3%.
So 90% of the time, we have nothing to train for.
And 97% of the time we have little to train for.
But for that 3% of the time, we should be prepared.
What are my chances being an old man in a safe neighborhood who doesn't drink anymore? So small that I just train for the fun of it.
Lynn you old optimist

Quote:
Roman Kremianski wrote: View Post
Statistics can all suddenly fly our the window by being at the wrong place at the wrong time.
No, you become one of the statistics

Quote:
Roman Kremianski wrote: View Post
Which is sort of why it's kind of silly to "train" for being jumped...just train for the sake of training, then when you do get jumped, you might get a little practice.
The point of training in a self defence school is, well, for self defence. Hence I believe you need to know what to defend yourself against.

Regard,

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:30 PM   #17
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
No, you become one of the statistics
So you just become another addition to a collection of oddball incidents that try to tell people how often they'll get jumped.

Not saying statistics are totally useless...just saying you shouldn't be train for a percentage of something or a specific situation. Train to acquire skills, than use these skills wherever you see fit in life. Whether it's talking to someone, or putting someone on the floor.

Last edited by Roman Kremianski : 09-04-2007 at 01:33 PM.
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:36 PM   #18
wildaikido
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Roman Kremianski wrote: View Post
Hence why these statistics don't tell you anything. Because it's a collection of oddball incidents. Assaulted by one person 65% of the time? Many people have been "assaulted" by one person 99.9% of the time.
Quote:
Graham the Mathematician wrote:
Quote:
Graham the Aikidoka wrote:
Regards,

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:43 PM   #19
wildaikido
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Re: What are your chances?

People changing there posts, I don't know... But this one is better than the last one

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Roman Kremianski wrote: View Post
So you just become another addition to a collection of oddball incidents that try to tell people how often they'll get jumped.
Oh contraire, I am saying what you could expect IF you get jumped. I have not included numbers about how likely it is you WILL be jumped.

Quote:
Roman Kremianski wrote: View Post
Not saying statistics are totally useless...just saying you shouldn't be train for a percentage of something or a specific situation. Train to acquire skills, than use these skills wherever you see fit in life. Whether it's talking to someone, or putting someone on the floor.
I am suggesting though these numbers that should not just be mindful when we train, but how we train, if we have a purpose in mind.

Regards,

Graham Wild
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Old 09-04-2007, 02:52 PM   #20
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Re: What are your chances?

IMHO, statistics are generalizations. Useful, but not always applicable.

IMHO, Murphy was a realist. If something can go wrong, it will go wrong, at the most inopportune time, and with me in the vicinity.

Someone said, chance favors the prepared mind (and body).

Lynn Seiser PhD
Yondan Aikido & FMA/JKD
We do not rise to the level of our expectations, but fall to the level of our training. Train well. KWATZ!
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Old 09-04-2007, 03:33 PM   #21
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Re: What are your chances?

I don't see a distortion or misuse of statistics at work here. As for statistics being generalizations, when you say something like, "If something can go wrong, it will go wrong," you're the pot calling the kettle black -- your generalization isn't even supported by data.

Mind you, I have no argument against people choosing to train because even a very low probability stranger-in-the-street attack is still too high for them. I think, though, that these statistics do say something about the validity of statements that criticize aikido because it doesn't (in the critic's opinion) provide master-it-in-six-months foolproof self-defense against being attacked by half a dozen Crack-Crazed Urban Scum(tm). My answer is and always has been: no, and in six months you won't be able to defend yourself against a herd of angry circus ponies, either. What's that you say? Where did I get the herd of angry circus ponies? The same place you got the half-dozen Crack-Crazed Urban Scum(tm).

If you want to worry about being attacked by circus ponies, that's your business, but don't try to tell me that budo is worthless, for self-defense or anything else, because it can't teach someone how to defend against them in three easy lessons.
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Old 09-04-2007, 05:11 PM   #22
Janet Rosen
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Re: What are your chances?

Most of us in developed world are more likely to be attacked by cars, curbs, staircases, edges of bathtubs, etc - in other words, falls and throws related to non-attacks - and developing awareness AND good non-conscious, in the body ukemi is the best defense.

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Old 09-04-2007, 05:38 PM   #23
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Re: What are your chances?

Interesting thread thus far.

In regards to statistics: I live in St. Louis, which was given the honor of being the most dangerous city in the U.S. in 2006 (cf. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15475741/). Because of that statistic, do I feel frightened and insecure? No. Are my martial arts skills "good enough" to enable me to successfully defend myself? Maybe. Would doing some supplimentary training in BJJ improve my chances of fending off an attacker? Possibly.

Although I know the original poster isn't championing the primacy of BJJ over against Aikido, however I think it's important to state that groundfighting should not be regarded as a sort of self-defense panacea. I can clearly see BJJ's usefulness, but would I rely upon on it as my primary self-defense skillset? Not on your life!!!! (quite literally speaking).

My suggestion is to read the following article in its entirety:
http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/grappling.html.
Although it's a Marc "Animal" MacYoung production, it is nonetheless food for thought and I found it well-reasoned. It's worth exploring the rest of the site, but be forewarned of MacYoung's "I was such a bad-ass" soliloquies that frequently pop up...just dismiss them. Otherwise, he has some pretty good info.
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Old 09-04-2007, 06:10 PM   #24
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Re: What are your chances?

Quote:
Janet Rosen wrote: View Post
Most of us in developed world are more likely to be attacked by cars, curbs, staircases, edges of bathtubs, etc - in other words, falls and throws related to non-attacks - and developing awareness AND good non-conscious, in the body ukemi is the best defense.
If you ever been to a country at war or a third world country it's quite humbling when I consider the biggest threat to my safety on a daily basis is some blond yackking on her cell phone while tooling down the P.C.H. in her Hummer not paying attention to the nice guy cruising along on his Vespa to Aikido Practice.

William Hazen

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Old 09-04-2007, 06:13 PM   #25
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Re: What are your chances?

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Actually it's "Everyone has a plan...Until they get hit in the mouth.
Or have your ear bitten off.

David
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