I can't really speak to what's happening elsewhere, but at least in my tiny corner of the world, there seems to be a bit of an uptick in popularity. That being said, it seems like there's a bit of ebb and flow there - we've had good years and bad, in terms of enrollment. While I'm certain none of the various organizations would like to give out stats with regards to enrollment, I think that having that data would help us all in terms of understanding what (if any) problem there is on that front.
As for politics, all social groups of any reasonable size trying to do the "same" thing are going to end up with politics of some kind or another. Why would Aikido be any different? The main thing, IMO, is to try and minimize the negative impact of those politics on bystanders. Not always easy, sometimes not even possible, but a useful goal.
With regards to the martial effectiveness, I suppose I can't really comment. I've only ever practiced Aikido, and have been fortunate enough to work with a variety of teachers. Some of those teachers talked about philosophy and energy, while others focused on the more "hard" aspects of Aikido. In my view, there is value in both, and indeed a time for both. If the only way to "save" Aikido is to make it a hard-only art, I'd be looking for something else myself. I've gotten a lot from all my teachers.
When it comes to training and teaching, this is something I'm quite interested in. While I don't teach Aikido, I'm very curious to study how different teachers do their thing, and what effects it has on their students. I'd love to know more about where things are lacking in the training/teaching side of things. It's helpful to understand the bad habits as well as the good ones
