All training aside, you would either prevail or not.
The problem is, you can't put your training aside. How you train (or don't train) is going to affect not only how you specifically handle the assault (technique, etc.), but also your mindset, physical resilience, and a host of other factors quite relevant to whether you will survive such an attack.
It's also a question of honesty in training. You're quite correct in your implication that some arts and martial artists live in a fantasy world that they are "th3 d34dly." Others perhaps convince themselves that asymptotes and teaching the world to sing in perfect harmony (I date myself there) are sufficient substitutes for awareness, situational savvy, and being able to take a hit or a hard fall.
The title to this thread I regard as an excellent starting point of discussion, for aikidoka and for other martial artists: what are you training for? "Reality"-based self-defense has its own set of biases and limitations, to be sure, but it offers some good questions as well.