I think I disagree with Ted on the idea of independent dojos. I think there will be more the further we get away from the first generation aikidoka (those who have trained with the founder). A lot of the glue in the Aikido world is the awe in which these people are held. Once that starts going away, and it will, I think the model will inevitably change into a much more fractured environment. I think we could look to karate and other arts for our future.
Recently, two independent dojos in my area have affiliated themselves with national organizations. Within the last few years all of the independents in my area have affiliated themselves.
I tend to see aikidoists as more conservative than other martial arts groups. After all, they could have gone with a fashionable martial art
like Gracie ju-jitsu rather than one that emphasized tradition and Japanese etiquette.
However, you could very well be right. If aikido groups follow the model of some other Japanese martial arts, aikido could be fractured down to various independent dojos and regional organizations.
Well, we'll see. Maybe 10 years from now, we can have a message posting "How well did you guess about Aikido's Future?"