No, the laws of society (Hobbs' Leviathan) are only one of many factors Pinker identifies as causes of the reduction of violence.
Since this thread is about personal, physical violence nuclear bombs on the one hand and white-collar crime on the other are both beside the point.
For most people--certainly most people with the resources to be on aikiweb--personal violence is largely avoidable. To the extent that it's not, budo training of any sort is a radically inefficient solution. A Glock, a can of mace, and a decent street self-defense course are all quicker options (singly or in combination).
I agree with you, though, about pretend-do. If what we're doing has any value it's in training body and spirit into a budo mindset--as contrasted with a victim mindset. The budo has to be honest if you hope to achieve that.
Well Hobbes was a realist, so he believed that the nature of man tended towards violence for sure, which is my point exactly and why I said what I did about nukes. That said, yes, on a large societal basis, nukes matter. On a personal level I also think it matters to a degree.
I tend towards liberalism on a personal scale, that is, I believe that individuals can transcend, or control, there violent nature...however, so far, we have not seen it demonstrated to any real degree that it can happen on a societal basis. (although I wish it would).
violence is avoidable cause you don't experience it for any number of reasons. However, it is not always the literal or explicit reasons we study budo that matters, but the intrinsic reasons that serve to deter violence. I think it is best to understand it so we can make informed choices. It may indeed involve passive measures such as not walking alone in the dark, or active measures such as carrying mace etc. On a societal basis, we have a much bigger challenge ahead of ourselves and as budoka, we should be setting the example for others to follow.