I think winning is about not getting hurt. Time is your enemy on this front. The longer the fight, the higher probability for injury.
Regarding arm bar. The best way I have seen to train against them is
(1) play for positioning. Positioning trumps all technique.
(2) train the arm. Chain driven weight machines are best. On the old nautilus curl machine, for instance, determine your maximum weight. That means you get muscle failure with one successful curl.
Then notch it down to 40% - especially if you haven't built a weight training foundation. You may want to begin with less. This training can be dangerous as it replicates the execution of a real arm bar upon yourself. It can also make you a bit tight, so get plenty of amino acids and do your yoga.
As you curl the weight up, drop your hands faster than the weights fall, catch them as they fall, and literally throw them back up again. This only works on chain driven machines. Cable machines and some belt machineswill go off track or bust the pulley.
You are training the fast twitch muscles to become instinctually explosive. And, yes, this is in Hal's book on Fight Strength. As I said, his training regimen was a daily attempt at committing suicide.
But, that which does not kill you, makes you stronger. It works.
This is about the worst advice I have ever heard. Lifting will isolate and stiffen the arm and actually make you easier to lock.
"Tight makes light.....
And easy to fight...."
The way to train the limbs is to connect them to the center. It is the ONLY acceptable method for high level power and skill. Oddly I have rarely seen or met teachers capable of it, and those who can teach (past ridiculous one liners) .....rarer still.