Saying that what you practice is martially effective is not the same as being martially effective. As (in general) there are no objective "effectivity tests", what remains is some sort of theoretical reasoning which is performed (if it is performed at all) within a group of like minded, and not very martially savvy people with the unsurprising general agreement and backslapping.
It sounds as though you are saying that Aikido training is not an environment conducive to actually knowing whether or not one's Aikido is martially effective; it is actually conducive to FOOLING oneself into believing that ineffective Aikido is effective.
So how can you make your second assertion, that "Aikido is martially effective?" You've admitted that you have no way of knowing this.