This could be true, I don't know the stats but my point being that all things being equal
(which we can only assume since this is hypothetical), the knife will win out. It's rock paper scissors at this point.
These type of questions can never be answered though. All situations are different, all attacks are different, all attackers are different. Is the sun in your eyes? Were you sneezing at the moment of attack? Is there a slippery surface? Is the guy on PCP? Were you on PCP?
I don't think the person being attacked has to disarm the attacker but he has to control the knife or render it useless somehow.
The original question wondered if Aikido is an effective art for disarming an opponent with a knife. I still say no. Running is the best defense for a knife.
Tim. Thanks for the response. Check out that saying you used above though......'All things being equal.......rock, scissors paper etc. This is actually 'all things being NOT equal.
This is precisely my point. Accepting you are dealing with a not equal situation. So talking about these matters they need to be put in the right category which is a category of not equal. That's the reality to start from. That's the perspective needed.
From that perspective a person can see clearly the simplicity of the scene. If someone draws a knife (not equal) and you want to play that game of not equal then obviously you draw out a bigger knife. Then he draws out a sword. Then you draw out a gun.
That's the madness involved in weapons use to be superior to the opponent. Just crazyness in action and is nothing to do with 'all things being equal' Its all to do with a mindset called being superior and dominant.
What that mindset fails to realize is where it leads to.
It is good sense to tell someone to run from a knife as being unarmed and probably therefore incapable of defeating it then that would apparently be the best course of action.
However, that doesn't mean don't train armed verses unarmed for that is an important part of Aikido where much can be learned. when someone find how to move and face a weapon and can do it with ease then and only then can you say it is possible and in fact for that person quite easy.
Is the person holding the weapon quite prepared to be damaged by the opponent? For he is bringing unfairness into the equasion and is quite willing to harm the opponent.(Be it using a tanto or bokken or whatever) I say this because people keep using the mantra of 'real' Well that works both ways. Real would mean giving the person with the tanto a black eye or bruised face or damaged shoulder for he is quite willing if being'real' to jab you hard and give you bruising.
Thus we see 'real' is not very real at all for if you have to damage each other then no one would be fit for the battlefield.
Training is training and merely a representation to build up skills and ability so that if an in life situation arises you automatically do without thinking.
Aikido actually teaches you not to run. It teaches how to move. How to move against an attack without discrimination as to whether the person has a weapon or not, is a boxer or a sumo or whatever.
If a person doesn't believe this then they doubt Aikido. Aikido would put you behind the person with the knife. So Aikido isn't the problem for Aikido works. We are the problem until we can see this and do it.
This is my personal view and experience. It is not a put down of you or anyone. It is merely a viewpoint I offer as my reality.
Thanks for listening.