ebb and flow
I think that in the future, there will be a larger number of aikido organizations in North America. (Flow.) Then, some of these organizations may eventually be absorbed by major groups. (Ebb.)
Whether these groups are affiliated with Aikikia is, of course, largely up to the heads of these organizations and Aikikai.
A good example of this has already occured. Ki-Akidio and a few other shihan broke away from Aikikai; Numerous other teachers broke away from Ki-Aikido. (Flow.)
Then, various shihan began gathering up the "lost sheep" while at the same time, Aikikai began re-establishing it affiliations with various groups. (Ebb.)
A lot of this is pure economics, although few will own up to this. Increasing the client base increases revenue. Adding more and more requirements (such as seminiars), and boosting testing fees raises capital flow.
Whether or not Akikai will be able to continue to pull various groups into its fold will depend on a number of factors, such as:
1. How well does it serve its constituents?
2. Will the price paid be worth the services rendered?
3. Will the organization maintain its legitimacy?
4. Will political infighting eventually lead to another major break-up?
5. Will it be able to maintain its "mystique" as the Mecca of aikido?"