So whom ever he would meet in this tournament, he had taken probably a few punches without any effect, and the others just fell over out of balance from time to time. In the end the aikidoka is still in quit good condition, while his partners are exhausted. How far would he have come? Or if it was an each-vs-each-tournament, where woild he be in the end? Probably disqualified for not fighting or right at the end for not scoring, I guess.
I appreciate the effort you put into this post, but I think you are missing some crucial experience in the format you are discussing.
I have tried working evasions with people who are in good shape, trained in other arts (including wrestling and striking arts) and have found the following:
a) against conditioned atheletes, evasions only work for so long. They can expend way more energy when used against a cautious, skilled attack than you might think. You may be sucsessful for 2, 3, maybe even 5 evasions (I say may...this is best case). But the ma ai on each sucsessful evasion narrows...sooner or later you get caught. Strategies like xstep in, pivot, xstep back to re-establish distance help...but for the evasions to be sucsessful against a skilled fighter, you have to work on a VERY thin edge...and even slight changes in ma ai after a sucsessfull evasion can throw the next one off. To the point where a good boxer will tag you (hard) or a wrestler will have a good opportunity to shoot.
b) Once one of those two things happen, if you don't have strategies to cover and protect from being hit, or to stop a shot, you WILL get hit, or taken down, and have to carry the other persons weight while trying to escape or defend.
c) Establishing and maintaining ma ai in a closed environment like a cage, or even a mat with marked boundries and a referee to call time and bring you back in, is not the same as what we see in most aikido dojo. In a cage environment, any skilled fighter is going to cut corners, take angles, force you into a corner or up against the fence. If you can't deal with them there, you are going to have problems.
I'm not saying these stategies can't work for a short time...but sooner or later the rubber will have to meet the road...you will have to be able to fend off the commited, balanced attack while not sustaining damage. My prediction? If you haven't trained for the environment, you will get hosed.