Yep, I certainly wouldn't believe every answer you get. Its a bit like navigating through a dense forest. No-one knows exactly where they are, better more experienced people tend to have a better idea. However if you bump into someone thats been walking around the same clump of trees for 10 years, he'll only be able to tell you about that clump of trees.
At the end of the day, you've got to find your own way through the forest and just use peoples advice as sign posts.